The climate won’t warm as much as we feared – but it will warm more than we hoped
We know the climate changes as greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the exact amount of expected warming remains uncertain.
Scientists study this in terms of “equilibrium climate sensitivity” – the temperature rise for a sustained doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations. Equilibrium climate sensitivity has long been estimated within a likely range of 1.5-4.5℃.
Under our current emissions trajectories, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere will likely double between 2060 and 2080, relative to concentrations before the industrial revolution. Before that, they had changed little for millennia.
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