Summary of the impact

Human-caused climate change represents an escalating global crisis, demanding urgent, evidence-based policy responses and adaptive strategies. Researchers at the Research School of Earth Sciences (RSES) are at the forefront of delivering the critical scientific insights and innovative capabilities needed to inform these decisions. With leadership in four major climate-focused Centres of Excellence - collectively valued at over $100 million - RSES has driven advancements in climate science, particularly in ocean modelling and paleoclimate research. These contributions have been pivotal in establishing Australia’s national climate simulation infrastructure (ACCESS) and underpin the nation’s contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Moreover, the cutting-edge software developed by RSES is poised to power the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) operational ocean forecasting system.

Beyond academia, RSES research delivers direct benefits to industry, government, and society. Our researchers have played leading roles as coordinating authors in the latest IPCC assessment cycle, provided expert testimony at government inquiries, and trained policymakers and industry professionals, including firefighters, water authorities, and legal practitioners. Through public lectures, media engagement, and innovative educational outreach, RSES is not only advancing our understanding of climate change and capacity to predict future changes, but also ensuring that this knowledge is accessible and actionable, empowering communities to confront and adapt to a warming world.

Underpinning research

Human-caused climate change is a profound and increasingly urgent challenge for governments and society. Addressing it effectively requires robust climate observations to understand historical and present changes, alongside predictive models to project future climates. RSES has been at the forefront of generating both foundational observations and innovative climate models that inform policy and societal responses.

Key Research Insights

• Climate Observations: RSES researchers have harnessed diverse data sources, including historical records, satellite observations, and paleoclimate proxies, to deepen understanding of Earth’s climate systems over timescales ranging from decades to millennia. These paleo records are especially critical, providing analogues for potential future climate states and offering unique insights into the mechanisms driving climate variability and extremes in a warming world.
• Climate Modelling: RSES has pioneered the development of advanced climate models, which solve coupled mathematical equations that describe the interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere, and biosphere. These models are integral to generating accurate predictions and are a cornerstone of national and global climate science efforts.

Research Program and Outputs

RSES’s contributions are grounded in fundamental research into oceanic, atmospheric, and coupled climate processes. This work is supported by unparalleled national facilities, including:

• Preferential access to the NCI supercomputer through ANU’s institutional grant.
• Australia’s sole dedicated laboratory for climate process studies, enabling experimental and observational breakthroughs.
• Unique capacity within Australia for collecting field samples in remote locations, including Antarctica, Unique in Australia, RSES boasts a critical mass of quantitative climate scientists (five faculty members) whose expertise spans the spectrum from process-level understanding to global-scale climate modelling.

This combination of expertise and infrastructure has enabled RSES to:

• Serve as a core partner in four ARC Centres of Excellence (Climate System Science, Climate Extremes, Antarctic Science, and 21st Century Weather) over the past 14 years.
• Lead the Linkage-funded Consortium for Ocean and Sea Ice Modelling in Australia (COSIMA), which drives innovation in ocean and sea ice modelling.

A Flagship Contribution: ACCESS-OM

Through COSIMA, RSES has led the development of ACCESS-OM, the ocean component of Australia’s climate modelling system. This flagship model is a testament to RSES’s unique role as a model developer, not just a model user. Key contributions include:

• Innovating new physics and numerical methods to enhance model accuracy and reliability.
• Broad adoption and impact: ACCESS-OM forms the backbone of climate modelling efforts by the Bureau of Meteorology, the Australian Antarctic Division, and CSIRO, as well as RSES’s research partners in the Centres of Excellence.

Fundamental Research Supporting Broader Impact

RSES’s ability to advance climate models relies on its fundamental research into poorly understood climate processes, such as ocean-atmosphere interactions, sea ice dynamics, and heat transport. These insights directly improve the accuracy and robustness of climate simulations, enabling more reliable operational forecasts and long-term projections that guide decision-making at local, national, and international levels.

Outputs

• Kiss, Andrew E., et al. ACCESS-OM2 v1. 0: a global ocean–sea ice model at three resolutions. Geoscientific Model Development 13.2 (2020): 401-442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-401-2020 [147 citations, Google Scholar].
• Abram, Nerilie J. et. al. Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia. Communications Earth and Environment 2, 8 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00065-8 [605 citations, Google Scholar]
• Abram, N., et al. Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium. Nature Climate Change 4, 564–569 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2235 [442 citations, Google Scholar]
• Abram, N.J., Wright, N.M., Ellis, B. et al. Coupling of Indo-Pacific climate variability over the last millennium. Nature 579, 385–392 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2084-4 [177 citations, Google Scholar].
• A. K. Morrison, A. McC. Hogg, M. H. England, and P. Spence (2020), Warm Circumpolar Deep Water transport toward Antarctica driven by local dense water export in canyons, Sci. Adv., 6, eaav2516. [103 citations, Google Scholar].
• Q. Li, M. H. England, A. McC. Hogg, S. R. Rintoul and A. K. Morrison (2023). Abyssal ocean overturning slowdown and warming driven by Antarctic meltwater, Nature, 615, 841-847. [120 citations, Google Scholar].
• Devanand, A. et al., (2024) Australia’s Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change. Science Advances. 10, DOI:10.1126/sciadv.adj3460.

Funding

• Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Australian Research Council, 2011-2017, $21.4M, ANU CIs: Hogg, Roderick, Steffan.  
• Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian Research Council, 2017-2024, $32.1M, ANU CIs: Roderick, Hogg, Abram, Shakespeare, Maher.
• Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Australian Research Council, 2024-2030, $35M, ANU CIs: Abram, Hogg, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Maher.
• Eddy-resolving global ocean-sea ice modelling, Australian Research Council Linkage Project, 2016-21, $600k, ANU CIs: Hogg.
• Building Australia's next-generation ocean-sea ice model, Australian Research Council Linkage Project, 2021-25,$1.1M, ANU CIs: Hogg, Morrison, Shakespeare.
• Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, Australian Research Council Special Research Initiatives, 2020-2027, $20M, ANU CIs: Armand, Abram, Tregoning, Ellwood, Morrison, Rohling, Davies, Heslop.
• National Environmental Science Program, Climate Systems Hub, Departments of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water, 2021-2027, $35M, ANU lead: Abram. ANU project leads: Shakespeare, Borevitz, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Holgate.
• Lethal Humidity Global Council, Minderoo Foundation, 2024-2027, $1.6M, ANU CI: Abram.

Details of the impact

Climate science research and expertise at RSES have delivered substantial impacts across government, industry, community, and philanthropic sectors. Below are selected examples of this broad-reaching impact: 

1. Transforming Ocean and Sea Ice Modelling in Australia

The Consortium for Ocean and Sea Ice Modelling in Australia (COSIMA), led by RSES, has significantly advanced the quality and application of ocean and sea ice models. These models now underpin critical operations in academia, ocean forecasting, and coupled climate modelling across institutions such as the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), Defence, and CSIRO.

Key milestones include:

 2. Addressing Australia’s Climate Extremes

RSES research has played a pivotal role in understanding and mitigating the impacts of Australia’s climate
extremes:

• Bushfire Response: Following the Black Summer bushfires, RSES led an interdisciplinary, rapid-response study linking climate change to the disaster..
• Policy Influence: The study informed the NSW Bushfire Inquiry (July 2020) through direct interviews with the inquiry panel.
• Ongoing Practitioner Impact:
  • Delivered a keynote lecture at the International Fire Behaviour and Fuels Conference (May 2024), with lasting influence cited by the ACT government.
  • Supported training programs for volunteer firefighters (September 2024).
• Recognition: The resulting research (Abram et al., 2021) was nominated for the 2022 Frontiers Planet Prize and was selected by the Australian Academy of Science as one of three Australian finalists for this prestigious award (Source: f).
• Engagement with Water Authorities: Between August and November 2021, RSES presented findings from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report to hundreds of practitioners, including through the Water Services Association of Australia and leadership teams at Sydney Water and SA Water.

3. Global Climate Policy Contributions

RSES has played critical roles in shaping international climate policy:

• IPCC Leadership:
  • Coordinating lead authorship for IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Environment (2021), including negotiating consensus approval for the Summary for Policymakers.
  • Disseminated findings through public events attended by hundreds of policymakers and community members.
• Seventh Assessment Cycle:
  • Two RSES researchers were selected among only four Australians to participate in scoping the IPCC Working Group I report (December 2024), highlighting RSES’s international reputation and expertise (Source: h).
  • Model Development for CMIP7: RSES co-led two CMIP7 Hackathons, establishing an Australian platform for model evaluation and collaboration with CSIRO and ACCESS-NRI (Source: i).

4. Expert Policy and Legal Contributions

RSES researchers are regularly called upon to provide expert information shaping climate policy and accountability frameworks:

• Parliamentary Engagement:
  • Expert witnesses for the Senate Inquiry on the 2022 Climate Bill (August 2022) and the Joint Standing Commission Inquiry into the Importance of Antarctica (September 2024).
• Contributions to the Climate Change Amendment (Duty of Care and Intergenerational Climate Equity) Bill (February 2023).
• Public Policy Panels: Participated in events at Parliament House, including one hosted by Zali Steggall MP and Senator David Pocock on greenhouse gas emissions targets.
• Informing business and industry leaders: Examples include invited panelist for 2020 summit of the Australian Institute of Company Directors, forum of Chief Executive Women (hosted by Sam Mostyn and Lucy Turnbull; October 2021), and International Women's Day event for ACT building and engineering industry (Australian Museum, March 2022).
• Legal Frameworks:
  • Provided seminars to Ashurst (2022) and acted as expert witnesses for the Environmental Defenders Office (2021–2024).
  • Delivered presentation on climate change and human rights to legal practitioners (October 2024).

5. Philanthropic Support for Climate Accountability

RSES’s growing contributions to climate accountability, including quantifying human health and mortality impacts, have attracted significant philanthropic funding:

• Minderoo Foundation: Support developed through direct engagement with Dr. Andrew Forrest on three occasions since August 2023. (Source: k)

Where next?

Pathways to Future Impact

The Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather (2024–2030) marks the next critical step in advancing climate research, focusing on the mechanisms of weather change and their implications for society. This evolution builds on the success of previous Centres of Excellence:

1. Climate System Science: Studying mean climate.
2. Climate Extremes: Exploring extremes in climate and what causes them.
3. 21st Century Weather: Examining localised weather systems responsible for high-impact events such as windstorms, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves, and the growing reliance on weather as a resource as the world decarbonises.

This Centre aims to deliver:

• Next-Generation Modelling: Developing unprecedentedly detailed models that integrate this understanding to improve prediction and risk assessment.
• Knowledge for Decision-Making: Empowering governments, industries, and communities to minimise risks and maximise opportunities associated with changing weather patterns, particularly in the context of decarbonised energy systems.

The outcomes of this research will provide Australian society with the knowledge and technology to make informed and robust decisions in response to evolving weather patterns.

Industry and Government Partnerships: A Two-Way Impact

RSES is leading the Industry and Government Partnerships Program within the Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather. This program involves formal partnerships with key stakeholders, including:

• Government: DCCEEW, NSW, and Victorian State Governments.
• Industry: IAG, AON, Suncorp, Water NSW, Energy Australia, Global Sustainable Energy Solutions, and Deloitte.

Key objectives include:

• Collaborative Research Design: Ensuring that research addresses real-world challenges identified by partners.
• Training and Climate Literacy: Equipping policymakers and industry professionals with cutting-edge insights and actionable knowledge.
• Tailored Weather Change Advice: Providing specific guidance to partners on managing risks and seizing opportunities related to future weather changes.

As an example of early success and impact, In August 2024, RSES hosted a masterclass training event at ANU, attended by approximately 50 policymakers from various government departments. This engagement has already catalyzed new opportunities, such as:

• Defence Collaboration: An invitation to present the State of Australia’s Weather and Climate summary to international climate ambassadors. This will extend the global impact of RSES research and foster deeper international partnerships.

Expanding to Ocean-Focused Research

RSES is building on its strong track record in leading climate Centres of Excellence by contributing to the proposed Centre of Excellence for Our Future Oceans. This Centre, if funded, will complement the atmosphere-focused 21st Century Weather Centre by addressing the challenges and opportunities of Australia’s changing ocean environments.

Key Objectives of the Ocean Centre:

• Opportunities: Investigating offshore wind potential and marine carbon sequestration technologies.
• Risk Assessment: Understanding coastal hazards and risks to marine parks, fisheries, and coastal infrastructure.
• Informed Decision-Making: Developing tools to support decisions on coastal development, insurance strategies, marine industry planning, and climate mitigation.

With expertise in oceanography, RSES is well-positioned to lead efforts in this domain, producing decision-making frameworks that will shape sustainable ocean governance.

Through these initiatives, RSES is advancing the frontiers of climate science and building a clear pathway toward actionable, real-world impacts that address critical societal needs in a changing climate.

Demonstrated alignment with school, university and national priorities

Future efforts in this space are strategically aligned with all five of Australia’s 2024 National Science and
Research Priorities, RSES’ mission to lead Australia in climate and ocean science, and ANU’s overarching
strategic priorities, including environmental sustainability, health and wellbeing, First Nations engagement,
and societal transformation.

1. Transitioning Toward a Net Zero Future (Priority 1)

• The Centres of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and Future Oceans are central to driving Australia’s transition to a net zero future. Their focus on weather resources, offshore wind potential, and marine carbon sequestration will shape both government policy and private-sector investment, supporting Australia’s clean energy goals.
• These efforts also align with ANU’s commitment to addressing climate change through innovative research that supports a sustainable future.

2. Ensuring Healthy and Thriving Communities (Priority 2)

• Research in 21st Century Weather, the NESP Climate Systems Hub, and the Minderoo partnership will address the growing human health impacts of climate change. Key areas include the lethal combination of increasing heat and humidity and their effect on vulnerable populations.
• The outcomes will underpin policy development aimed at safeguarding public health and wellbeing, aligning with ANU’s strategic priority of advancing health and societal resilience.

3. Elevating Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Knowledge Systems (Priority 3)

• Each initiative includes funding for specialised Indigenous Facilitators to ensure research is co-designed with Indigenous communities. These efforts will incorporate First Nations knowledge systems and deliver outputs that address the specific needs of Indigenous communities disproportionately affected by climate change.
• This approach directly supports ANU’s strategic focus on First Nations engagement and its commitment to amplifying Indigenous voices in research.

4. Protecting and Restoring Australia’s Environment (Priority 4)

• Both Centres of Excellence are dedicated to producing improved prediction tools for forecasting weather patterns, tipping points, extreme events, and local sea level rise. These tools will be critical for formulating policies that protect ecosystems and biodiversity in a changing climate.
• These efforts reinforce RSES and ANU leadership roles in advancing Australia’s environmental science and policy capabilities.

5. Building a Secure and Resilient Nation (Priority 5)

• Research into extreme weather events, such as bushfires, heatwaves, and natural disasters, will equip Australia with the knowledge and tools necessary for national resilience.
• This work aligns with ANU’s strategic priority of contributing to national security and ensuring that Australia can adapt to and thrive in a changing world.

By addressing these priorities, RSES’s future research initiatives will continue to shape Australia’s response to the climate crisis while advancing ANU’s vision for impactful, globally relevant research. This alignment ensures a cohesive approach to tackling some of the most pressing challenges facing society, supporting both national and international progress toward sustainability and resilience.