Ocean feedbacks to Antarctic ice melt
The melting of Antarctica’s marine-terminating ice sheets is controlled by heat delivered from the Southern Ocean to the Antarctic margins, and is the largest uncertainty in future sea level rise. This project will use a combination of ocean modelling, theory and observations to predict future Antarctic melt rate.
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Marine terminating ice shelves in Antarctica are experiencing accelerated melt, contributing to global sea level rise and a slowdown of the global overturning circulation. It has been shown that this melt is predominantly a consequence of rising ocean temperatures. Heat is delivered to the Antarctic margins via a variety of mechanisms, including fine-scale processes that are difficult to measure directly. Thus, we do not have a good understanding of why some Antarctic coastal regions have warmed more than others in recent decades, driving the observed increase in melt rates; or what feedbacks may be important in the future.
Our group uses numerical modelling to understand the oceanic processes which control delivery of heat to the Antarctic coastal region. Example projects within this topic include:
- Determining which local or remote forcing (e.g. changing winds, surface freshening) controls the warming of Antarctic waters.
- Quantifying the contribution of ocean processes that govern the fine-scale intrusion of warm water into the Antarctic coastal region, such as eddies, bottom flows and tides.
- Investigating large-scale feedbacks between Antarctic ice melt and the global overturning circulation.
This project is in collaboration with others in the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science.